NZSIS publishes unclassified assessment of New Zealand’s threat environment

The New Zealand Security Intelligence Service has published its first ever comprehensive assessment on the threats of violent extremism, foreign interference and espionage facing contemporary New Zealand.

The ‘Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the terrorist attack on Christchurch masjidain on 15 March 2019’ called for the publication of an annual threatscape report, and this assessment fulfils that recommendation.

New Zealand’s Security Threat Environment 2023 is an analytical report on the nature of the threats we face as a country. It provides more detail of those threats and their origins than what has previously been reported at an unclassified level by the NZSIS.

NZSIS Director-General of Security Andrew Hampton says this is an upfront assessment of how New Zealand connects into the global security environment and how those with malicious intent take steps to undermine our democracy and security.

“In recent years, there has been a clear demand for more information about the factors likely to impact our collective safety and security. We hear this from across government, academia and civil society but also at a community level. Our report attempts to provide more clarity.

“Being more open about national security means that as a country we can develop a greater understanding and be better placed to manage risks.

The report outlines four key factors that influence New Zealand’s contemporary threat environment in relation to the main threats the NZSIS is charged with monitoring – violent extremism, foreign interference and espionage. It finds strategic competition, declining social trust, technological innovation and global economic instability are shaping our domestic threat environment.

“Competition between states is becoming more acute,” says Andrew Hampton. This environment is prompting some states to seek advantage through subversive and dishonest means such as espionage and foreign interference against New Zealand and New Zealand’s interests.

“NZSIS is very clear that those responsible for the foreign interference threat are the states themselves and the people who act on their behalf. The vast majority of people who whakapapa to those countries are not the threat.

“This is an important distinction. The report does not single out any community as a threat to our country, and to do so would be a misinterpretation of the analysis,” Andrew Hampton says.

The evolving nature of violent extremist ideologies is another theme in the assessment. “In the last year we have seen the emergence in New Zealand and around the world, of individuals who explore a range of extremist beliefs without aligning with any one in particular,” says Andrew Hampton. “The NZSIS has adopted the term ‘mixed, unstable and unclear’ ideologies to help it understand their unique characteristics.”

The report also identifies mis-and dis-information as a common factor affecting a range of threats.

“False and discredited information shapes pathways to violent extremism, but also creates opportunities for foreign interference,” Andrew Hampton says.

“Our analysis is not about predicting what people or governments will do, rather it is about understanding the factors that motivate or drive particular choices so we can better prepare ourselves for the security threats of the present and the future.”

Background

The role of the NZSIS is to keep New Zealand and New Zealanders safe and secure. NZSIS has a mandate to detect, investigate, assess and mitigate threats.   

NZSIS is also responsible for providing a range of protective security services to other government agencies.