NZSIS releases 2026 Security Threat Environment report

The NZSIS is warning that national security challenges to New Zealand have intensified over the past year against a backdrop of increasing geopolitical uncertainty.

The fourth edition of the NZSIS Security Threat Environment Report describes in greater detail than before the flow-on effects for New Zealand from the most challenging global threat environment in recent times.

The report is available to read online at New Zealand's Security Threat Environment 2026.

The 2026 report makes six key assessments about New Zealand’s current threat environment:

• Geopolitical upheaval is bringing downstream threats to New Zealand’s safety and security.
• New Zealand’s public and private sectors are being targeted by foreign states and their proxies to gain access to critical assets including intellectual property, innovative technology and other non-public information.
• Diaspora community groups in New Zealand are being unfairly targeted by foreign states and their proxies seeking to limit the democratic rights and freedoms they enjoy as New Zealanders.
• More insiders are causing harm to their organisations and our national security through actions that are either deliberate, influenced by outsiders or are unwitting.
• The national terrorism threat level remains at Possible. The most likely attack scenario would involve a lone actor targeting people in a crowded place using weapons that are easily accessible. Their mobilisation to violence will likely happen with little to no intelligence forewarning.
• Violent extremism in New Zealand is being influenced by a broad range of ideologies, a mix of domestic and international events, and the mainstreaming of extremist online rhetoric.

NZSIS Director-General Andrew Hampton says malign behaviours and activities seen over the last year are proving even more threatening for a country the size of New Zealand that is located in the South Pacific.

"Countries are being buffeted by shifting geopolitical forces, unprecedented levels of polarisation in societies, ongoing economic pressures and rapid advances in artificial intelligence. The flow-on effects for New Zealand’s national security makes up a complex and volatile picture.

"We are highly interconnected with the rest of the world, we produce leading innovations, hold important security partnerships and are located in the strategically important Pacific region, close to Antarctica. This makes New Zealand not only geopolitically relevant, but attractive to threat actors who are unsentimental in their pursuit of our information and their influence over us.

"Global events are not the sole source of New Zealand’s security challenges – some of our concerns are home grown. Extremist voices from within our shores are contributing to a polarised information environment, and we see some advocating for the use of violence. Young and vulnerable people are particularly susceptible to readily available online violent extremist narratives, which are often exacerbated by the use of artificial intelligence." says Mr Hampton.

Andrew Hampton says the report aims to help New Zealanders better understand the security threats we face and the risks needing managing, while also providing practical advice and resources to support all those who may be at risk. These resources include new protective security advice for Māori businesses and entities - Tiaki Pakihi Māori [PDF, 3.3 MB](external link) – which was discussed with leaders at a recent meeting of the National Iwi Chairs Forum.

"As I’ve said previously, we’re not trying be alarmist or cause fear. It’s about being as open as NZSIS can on what we see so that sectors, communities and individuals have the information they need to keep themselves and New Zealand safe. Our colleagues at the GCSB’s National Cyber Security Centre are taking the same approach when talking about cyber-security. Put simply, national security is not something exclusively owned by the security and intelligence agencies – it must be a collective effort.

"I’ve been pleased to see how conversations about our national security have matured and evolved since we first published this report three years ago. It is regularly referenced in a range of different contexts, including by the media in its ongoing reporting of the important issues facing New Zealand.  I welcome this because it’s exactly how we want the report to be used.

"I also want to highlight a new feature of this year’s report which are the career opportunities at NZSIS. We’re recruiting, so join us and help do something about the threats we’re talking about. Forget the stereotypes - we’re looking for a broad range of people.  Our vacancies range from roles requiring a strong technical or analytical background to jobs needing great people skills.  Check out our Beyond Ordinary website(external link) for more information, and register your interest to hear about future opportunities."

END

Additional notes and background:

The 2026 Security Threat Environment Report includes several emerging areas of focus and discussions to illustrate some of the national security challenges facing New Zealand. 

These include:

• Rapid advances in technology, including generative artificial intelligence.
• Foreign state actors seeking to exploit New Zealand’s flourishing space sector, including the attempts to establish Ground Based Space Infrastructure (GBSI)
• Espionage activity targeting the broader Pacific region
• Political interference in New Zealand against the backdrop of the upcoming General Election.  
• The impact of offshore conflicts.
  Increased discussion of ideological motivations and narratives in the violent extremism environment, including violent online communities.

The national terrorism threat level

The annual review of the national terrorism threat level was announced in February, including updated language to describe the threat level.  At the time of finalising the 2026 Security Threat Environment Report, the terrorism threat level remains at Possible. 

How the report is produced

The Security Threat Environment Report is an independent assessment by the NZSIS. It is not government policy.

It is based on information from a variety of sources including classified intelligence, New Zealand Government information, academic research plus open source/media reporting. Our assessments are developed over time and involve New Zealand Intelligence Community analysts and external subject matter experts.

Case studies in the report are all real world examples, and only a small sample of the type of concerning activities we see.

We acknowledge that intelligence gaps remain and alternative explanations are possible.

2026 Cyber Threat Report

The next annual Cyber Threat Report produced by the GCSB’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) is due to be published in October.