Current national terrorism threat level
POSSIBLE
A terrorist attack is assessed as possible.
The national terrorism threat level shows the likelihood of an attack
Terrorism threat levels are a statement about the likelihood of a terrorist attack occurring. The New Zealand national terrorism threat level is set by the Director-General of Security on advice from the Combined Threat assessment Group (CTAG).
The national terrorism threat level is formally reviewed at least annually, but can change at any time based on the current intelligence picture. It takes into account the domestic terrorism context and relevant international threat factors.
CTAG assesses threat levels by considering the current intent and capability of individuals or groups to undertake an act of terrorism.
New threat level definitions from 2026
In January 2026 CTAG adopted new language to define the national terrorism threat level.
These new definitions aim to explain the terrorism threat level in a more meaningful and accessible way for the public.
The existing five levels of terrorism threat are unchanged, but new definitions describe each level.
The current threat level of POSSIBLE is the same as LOW under the previous language.
Five national terrorism threat levels 2026
| Threat level | Likelihood assessment |
|---|---|
| EXPECTED | Terrorist attack is assessed as almost certain |
| HIGHLY LIKELY | Terrorist attack is assessed as highly likely |
| LIKELY | Terrorist attack is assessed as likely |
| POSSIBLE | Terrorist attack is assessed as possible |
| UNLIKELY | Terrorist attack is assessed as unlikely |