New Zealand’s Security Threat Environment

New Zealand's Security Threat Environment 2026

An assessment by the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service.

01. Foreword

By Andrew Hampton, Director-General of Security

New Zealand’s national security challenges have intensified over the past year.

Our last report described the threat environment as being the most challenging of recent times. The kinds of malign behaviours and activities we have seen over the past 12 months are proving even more threatening for a country like New Zealand given its size and location in the South Pacific.

All countries are being buffeted by shifting geopolitical forces, polarised societies, ongoing economic pressures and rapid advances in artificial intelligence. This report describes the flow-on effects for New Zealand’s national security. It is a complex and volatile picture.

In some respects, New Zealand will experience the current turbulence in different ways to other small countries. We are highly interconnected with the rest of the world, we produce leading innovations, we hold some important security partnerships, we are part of the strategically important Pacific region and we are located close to Antarctica with Christchurch being a key gateway. These factors in combination make New Zealand not only geopolitically relevant, but also attractive to threat actors.

As a result, NZSIS is seeing significant demand across government, the private sector and civil society for advice on how to navigate the current geopolitical turbulence and how to respond to the associated threats. Security risks can be managed in a way that builds resilience, defends New Zealand’s interests and keeps us safe and secure.

Global events are not the sole source of New Zealand’s security challenges – some of our concerns are homegrown. Extremist voices from within our shores are contributing to a polarised information environment, and we see some of these voices advocating for the use of violence. Young and vulnerable people in New Zealand are particularly susceptible to violent extremist narratives, which are more readily accessible online and now exacerbated by artificial intelligence.

Both Antisemitism and Islamophobia are among the concerning themes we see running through the violent extremist environment in New Zealand alongside other hateful narratives. Such harmful rhetoric should be called out early to stop it from festering and crossing the threshold to violence.

There are also New Zealanders, some deliberately and others unwittingly, acting in the interests of foreign states. This could be by handing over non-public information or influential New Zealanders self-censoring to stay onside with a foreign state. Such behaviour harms our democracy and our economy.

This year’s report shares as much information as we can while protecting the information that must remain secret so the NZSIS can be effective. Our case studies are real and indicative of some of the threats we see but only represent a small proportion of the harmful activity we see through classified intelligence.

The aim of this report is to help New Zealanders to better understand the security threats we face and the risks that need to be managed. There is information here of particular relevance to communities, businesses, local and central government, universities and researchers, but many of the topics discussed have wider consequences for society and are deserving of your attention.

Finally, we are always on the lookout for curious and creative people who are keen to join our mission to keep New Zealand safe and secure. If reading this assessment sparks an interest, check out our careers page towards the end of this assessment.

Andrew Hampton
August 2026

Key assessments

The NZSIS makes six key assessments about New Zealand’s threat environment in 2026:

  1. Geopolitical upheaval is bringing downstream threats to New Zealand’s safety and security.

  2. New Zealand’s public and private sectors are being targeted by foreign states and their proxies to gain access to critical assets including intellectual property, innovative technology and other non-public information.

  3. Diaspora community groups in New Zealand are being unfairly targeted by foreign states and their proxies seeking to limit the democratic rights and freedoms they enjoy in New Zealand.

  4. More insiders are causing harm to their organisations and our national security through actions that are either deliberate, influenced by outsiders or unwitting.

  5. Another terrorist attack in New Zealand is assessed as Possible. The most likely attack scenario would involve a lone actor targeting people in a crowded place using weapons that are easily accessible. Their mobilisation to violence will likely happen with little to no intelligence forewarning.

  6. Violent extremism in New Zealand is being influenced by a broad range of ideologies, a mix of domestic and international events, and the mainstreaming of extremist online rhetoric.