New Zealand's Security Threat Environment 2026

Identifying a violent extremist in New Zealand with real intent and capability to carry out an attack is increasingly difficult amid an online environment saturated with potentially radicalising content.

Violent extremists in New Zealand continue to be influenced by a broad range of ideologies, online rhetoric, domestic and global events, and personalised grievances. A disproportionate number of young people are coming to our attention after adopting increasingly extreme political, social, or religious beliefs that are motivated by violence.

NZSIS is tasked with finding violent extremists – people who justify the use of violence in order to achieve radical political, social or religious change in New Zealand.

Part of our job is to work out whether someone’s vitriolic and violent online pronouncements have any link to New Zealand, and then whether they have the genuine intent and capability to take the next step and commit an act of violence underpinned by an ideological motivation.

This is a narrow focus but the pool of information and intelligence we are working with is vast.

We used to describe our work as finding a needle in a haystack. However, the internet has changed. Large volumes of toxic content, widespread anonymity, and hidden locations mean our job is now like looking for the sharpest needle in endless giant stacks of needles.

Extremist rhetoric, particularly online, has become more mainstream, a development which has made it even more challenging to differentiate between genuine support for violent extremism, hateful language designed to shock, or online content created simply to drive engagement or “likes”.

The most common violent extremist ideologies seen in New Zealand remain identity and faith-motivated violent extremism. However, cases where an individual’s beliefs do not fit within any distinct ideological category are now commonplace.

Read our definitions of violent extremist ideologies on page 33.

During these current times of global conflict, political and economic volatility and societal disruption, violent extremist narratives are becoming more normalised, particularly online.

New Zealanders have been exposed to groups using online channels to recruit or radicalise across all extremist ideologies.

Established faith-motivated violent extremist groups such as the Islamic State and al-Qa’ida continue to grow in some permissive regions across the Middle East, Asia and Africa. Due to the pervasive influence of the internet, these groups have been able to reach New Zealanders through spreading propaganda and other harmful ideological content.

White identity violent extremist groups tend not to be as cohesive, but their online recruitment tactics are similar, and they are finding willing consumers of their content in New Zealand.

It remains the case that New Zealanders are searching for, accessing and sharing this content, including the young and vulnerable. Exposure to such material can hasten a young person’s pathway to radicalisation, especially when there is little monitoring or regulation of their online behaviours.

Under New Zealand’s National Terrorism Threat Level framework, a terrorist attack in New Zealand is currently assessed as Possible.

The most plausible attack scenario remains someone acting alone, who has been radicalised online, takes steps to avoid detection and who mobilises to violence with little to no intelligence forewarning.

They are likely to use basic capability that is easy to access such as a firearm, bladed weapon or vehicle to target people in a crowded place or somewhere with symbolic significance.

NZSIS has also observed instances of individuals attempting, or aspiring, to access more advanced capability including Improvised Explosives Devices (IED) and 3D printed firearms.

Artificial Intelligence tools and the growing availability of technology like 3D printers can make it easier for a motivated individual to build or gain access to more advanced capabilities.

Protecting Crowded Places

New Zealand Police has led work, alongside NZSIS and other agencies, to develop a strategy that sets out a consistent approach to promoting the safety of crowded places, including how to respond in the event of a terrorist attack.

Crowded places are locations that large numbers of people access easily and predictably. They include sporting arenas; transport hubs and public transport; buildings and offices; schools; shopping centres; restaurants, hotels, theatres and other entertainment venues; community festivals and markets; places of worship; tourist attractions; and civic spaces. Crowded places also include open spaces like busy urban streets, parks and pedestrian malls.

KNOW WHAT TO DO
www.police.govt.nz/crowdedplaces(external link)

Individuals in New Zealand who follow a violent extremist ideology will have largely self-radicalised online.

The internet is awash with extremist content. Not all of it will be violent extremism. Extremism is considered religious, social or political ideologies that exist substantially outside of more broadly accepted belief systems and are often seen as offensive to large parts of society. Extremism becomes violent extremism when violence is encouraged or viewed as justified to realise those beliefs.

Individuals become radicalised after gradual and increasing exposure to material where violence is portrayed as a justification for radical change.

There have been cases in New Zealand where a fascination with violence has been an entry point to someone eventually adopting a violent extremist ideology. Once down a rabbit hole, platform algorithms can serve up even more extreme content and create echo-chambers in which few alternative perspectives appear.

We are increasingly seeing cases where someone’s pathway to radicalisation may see them exploring and adopting a range of sometimes conflicting ideologies. We have observed people, for example, who have an interest in Islamic State propaganda and white identity extremist material at the same time.

The internet provides a place where even those with the most niche of beliefs or grievances can find likeminded communities.

Algorithms on various social media platforms can link non-violent content to progressively more extreme material. The gateway subject matter can quickly expose people to violent extremist content that can support radicalisation.

New Zealanders are not just end consumers of these narratives. NZSIS has observed New Zealand violent extremists use encrypted messaging systems, social media and online gaming platforms to circulate violent material including weapon tutorials and objectionable content. Their presence on these platforms, many of which are mainstream, also helps them to find likeminded individuals or supporters.

Male supremacist beliefs are shared within particular communities and are easy to find online. Adherents seek to preserve and advance male dominance by advocating for fixed gender roles. These views exist on a spectrum ranging from non-violent, like the ‘tradwife’ subculture, to violent male supremacy which encourages violence against women.

Online communities are formed around a range of violent extremist narratives. Members rarely know each other’s true identity or the country where they live so these are not real-world friendships.

Violent extremist chatrooms are dark places where terrorist attacks are discussed, and attempts are made to recruit and radicalise others. Hiding behind online aliases, users feel safe to share or seek out extremist content confident that they will not face any real world consequence.

Provocative memes, dark humour and a sense of shared community draw in vulnerable or isolated individuals who find validation from others with similar grievances and ideological beliefs.

The use of youth slang and coded language within these chatrooms generates a group identity that reinforces who are the insiders and who is an outsider. Such insider slang also helps users evade moderation efforts by platforms.

We continue to notice that it is young and vulnerable people who are most likely to be susceptible to radicalisation in these environments. Young people and individuals with vulnerabilities such as mental ill health are seeking connection, especially when they struggle to maintain real life relationships.

Members of violent extremist chatrooms appeal to vulnerable newcomers by offering a false sense of connection and the freedom to be as provocative as they want.

Violent extremist content and narratives are becoming more accessible. Often such material may only be a few clicks away from more innocent content.

Unfortunately, the Christchurch terrorist attack livestream is frequently accessed and shared within New Zealand. The video is classified as Objectional Material and viewing or sharing of it is illegal in New Zealand. It is strongly encouraged to report such activity to NZSIS or Police. In much the same way as Islamic State propaganda videos, such content is known to contribute to or hasten someone’s radicalisation.

Often individuals who access this material have no violent extremist intent and capability, but our teams still need to know so an assessment can be made. Young people who have been exposed to this kind of content may need to be referred for wellbeing support given the distressing nature of the material.

We also see beliefs and theories that were previously regarded as wholly unacceptable become more mainstream.

An example is the wide promotion of the Great Replacement Theory, a white nationalist conspiracy that falsely claims there is a plot by global elites to replace white populations in Western countries with non-white immigrants. Online influencers or well-known public figures are harnessing discontent by floating such extremist or violent extremist views.

When influential figures platform these ideas, it has the effect of reducing inhibitions about sharing this material and normalises the rhetoric. It can also contribute to an individual’s radicalisation.

Nihilistic violent extremists advocate for violence to change society to one without moral and legal restrictions. A nihilistic society is one where any form of behaviour is permissible, including murder, sexual assault, child sexual abuse, and torture.

The phenomenon primarily develops within transnational online communities where graphic violence, violent extremist narratives, criminality and abuse are normalised, shared and rewarded.

Many of the individuals associated with these online communities are young people. NZSIS has an ongoing line of effort to understand how this movement could present in the New Zealand context and determining when support for an ideology online could translate to real-world violence.

Case study

An individual was reported to NZSIS for allegedly making online threats to carry out an act of violence in New Zealand, using an easily accessible weapon. The person was known to be a member of online groups linked to ideological nihilism, although there was no indication they understood or adhered to the ideology. It turned out the person had other criminal interests that motivated their interest in violence. Given this, NZSIS assessed in this case any act of violence would be more likely motivated by a personal grievance than a violent extremist ideology. The person is currently in prison on other charges.

All New Zealanders have a role to play in preventing terrorism and violent extremism – from staying safe on the internet to helping to detect threats and prevent attacks.

NZSIS supports the following resources and programmes to help identify concerning behaviours and activities and to promote disengagement from a radicalisation pathway.

Know the signs

NZSIS produced Know the Signs in 2022 to help New Zealanders identify indicators of violent extremism. All 50 indicators included in the guide have been observed within New Zealand in investigations dating back to 2006.

The guidance was recently reviewed for relevance to the current threat environment and was found to be still indicative of modern trends and behaviours.

Reporting is strongly encouraged when these activities are observed so violent extremist intent and capability can be assessed. The earlier concerns are reported, the more options there are for disengagement that do not necessarily need to involve the criminal justice system. All information provided is treated in confidence.

Seven themes associated with violent extremism in New Zealand

• Mindset and ideology
• Association and relationships
• Research and planning
• Gathering knowledge and resources
• Preparation
• Security awareness
• Unusual changes in behaviour

Read more about these indicators at: Know the signs: a guide for identifying signs of violent extremism [PDF, 2.4 MB]

Classifications Office

The Classification Office has worked with young New Zealanders extensively about the kinds of harmful content they are viewing online, and surveyed adults to get their perspective too. As a result of this work, they have developed a range of insights and resources to help caregivers and educators support them to navigate the online world.

Find out more: Resources | classificationoffice.govt.nz(external link)

Find out more about harmful and potentially illegal content at: What is harmful and illegal content? | classificationoffice.govt.nz(external link)

Headspace Invaders

Headspace Invaders is an interactive platform developed by Netsafe that helps young people aged 12 to 16 build confidence and critical thinking skills when navigating online content. It supports early action in response to manipulation, pressure, and harm online.

Try the platform, explore the modules, or access free resources for educators and families at Headspace Invaders | netsafe.org.nz(external link)

Positive Online Interventions

The NZSIS and other agencies worked with Explore Hāpainga Ora to create a series of online learning modules designed to help reduce the risk of radicalisation by equipping frontline professionals with the tools to engage early, safely, and effectively.

Grounded in international best practice and tailored to New Zealand’s unique cultural context, this course supports educators, youth advocates, social workers and counsellors among others to protect young people from online harm.

Sign up to the course at Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (PCVE) – Positive Online Interventions | myskill.co.nz(external link)

He Aranga Ake

He Aranga Ake is a multi-agency disengagement programme intended for someone who may pose a violent extremist threat of harm to a community or themselves.

It receives referrals from participating government agencies and provides a New Zealand specific disengagement approach to each individual accepted. Support is delivered through coordinated bespoke intervention plans, which target individual and environmental protective factors.

Find out more at: He Aranga Ake | police.govt.nz(external link)