New Zealand’s Security Threat Environment

New Zealand's Security Threat Environment 2025

An assessment by the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service.

Our place in the world

New Zealand’s security is closely linked to our prosperity. Both depend on our international connections and the free flow of information and trade. Last year we said that relationships between states had become less stable and less predictable than that of the previous two decades - this downward trajectory has continued into 2025.

Established relationships and agreements are being challenged as more states look to exert power in an attempt to shape key regions in line with their own priorities.

At the same time, rising authoritarianism and increasingly polarised views across societies are making some states less interested in following established international norms.

The result of these dynamics is global instability, where states, some with vastly different ideas about human rights and sovereignty, seek to wield more influence over other states.

A disregard for established norms is encouraging some states to conduct activity that infringes on New Zealand’s democratic system and values. One of the most common violations we see is states engaging in foreign interference activity against diverse communities in New Zealand.

We expect foreign interference and espionage to become more frequent as global instability continues and a sense of shared values degrades.

Three global themes affecting New Zealand’s security

The NZSIS has identified three security challenges happening around the world that either already have an impact in New Zealand or have potential to cause harm in the future.

1. Strategic competition

Strategic competition becomes more apparent as the global order becomes less stable. Competition between the United States, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and other countries is clearly evident and set to continue. Russia is highly likely to keep asserting its influence in Europe, both militarily and through other coercive actions, while the conflict and humanitarian crisis in the Middle East will have an enduring impact. Ongoing conflicts and tensions in Asia and Africa contribute to the instability.

Competition between powers is about economic, technological and military advantage, but it is also about disrupting policies or narratives perceived to be challenging a state’s national interests. Some states, including China, Russia and Iran, are willing to engage in covert or deceptive activity in order to influence discussions and decisions, or gain access to technology and information that can help them meet these goals. As we explain in this report, New Zealand has been targeted by some of these activities.

The Indo-Pacific is a focal point for geostrategic competition between major powers. The PRC is a particularly assertive and powerful actor in the region and will look at ways it can extend and embed its influence across the region. It has demonstrated both a willingness and capability to undertake intelligence activity that targets New Zealand’s national interests. 

2. Polarising and violent rhetoric

Our public spaces, both online and in the physical world, are becoming increasingly polarised. At the extreme edges, well outside of what would be considered normal social and political discourse, there is a notable degree of misplaced agitation and blame for perceived societal ills. Much of this rhetoric exists solely online, and its spread is aided by algorithms that push controversial content because it generates the most engagement. Often the targets of the agitation are New Zealand’s diverse communities.

There are foreign states that seek to make their own contribution with inflammatory rhetoric that can include false or misleading information. Their aim could be to distract populations or to damage social cohesion by exacerbating tensions between social, ethnic, or political groups.

NZSIS has not seen any sophisticated state-backed information operations directly targeting New Zealand. However, many New Zealanders have almost certainly consumed foreign state manipulated information when active online, even if they are not the target audience of that information.

Some offshore violent extremist groups are continuing to use online spaces for recruitment and radicalisation, and are being deliberate in their targeting of young people, including in New Zealand. These groups take advantage of social divisions and offshore conflicts or crises to push violent rhetoric and justify violence. However, some individuals also selfradicalise online and the polarised nature of online spaces almost certainly increases the risks to vulnerable New Zealanders falling down radicalisation pathways.

Violent extremist propaganda has included a range of ideologies from Islamic State (IS) inspired to white-identity motivated. It is often spread without the direct involvement of violent extremist groups.

3. Technology

New Zealand has plenty to gain from advances in technology. Homegrown innovations are a force for good and should be celebrated. The NZSIS’s role is not to hinder this innovation, but to raise awareness of the impact technology can have on our national security and show how it can be protected.

The rapid development and evolution of technology has played a significant role in the nature of the threats facing New Zealand over many years. From the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) to the development of emerging technologies such as quantum computing, technology has both driven the intent of threat actors to target New Zealand and shaped the kinds of threat activity we see.

Recent advances in AI have had a particularly outsized impact on our threat environment. The use of AI to facilitate violent extremism and state-sponsored interference activities is increasing. AI is making harmful propaganda appear more authentic and allows it to be spread at scale and speed.

The ease of access to AI will be assisting violent extremists to research and plan attacks and is reducing barriers that previously made it difficult to access information about more advanced capabilities or weapons.

Some foreign intelligence actors will be using AI in their information operations, their intelligence gathering activities and to generate intelligence from open-source information or datasets. 

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