New Zealand's Security Threat Environment 2025

Violent extremists in New Zealand are predominantly drawn to their dangerous ideology through a gateway of social, economic or political grievances.

No one pathway to violence is the same, but most radicalisation is happening online. People seek to validate their grievances through their online activities. The way information is shared in New Zealand is permissible enough that it is relatively easy for someone to find violent extremist content that matches their grievance, as well as sites or forums where violence is promoted as a solution or as a way to advance their cause.

As with previous NZSIS reports, we continue to see our young and more vulnerable people as being particularly at risk of becoming radicalised to a violent extremist ideology.

NZSIS analysts look closely at how overseas events impact our threat environment.

Global events have less of a direct impact in New Zealand than elsewhere, but access to the violent extremist narratives that emerge from these situations is only a click away. One example NZSIS has observed is in how the global resurgence of the Islamic State’s propaganda and attacks resonates within small pockets of New Zealand’s violent extremist environment.

There remains a roughly even spread of violent extremist ideologies present among the individuals who come to our attention, including identity-motivated and faith-motivated violent extremism, as well as people who have mixed, unstable or unclear ideologies.

This section will focus less on specific ideological motivations and more on the activities we see associated with online radicalisation, as well as some of the factors that can make certain individuals vulnerable to being attracted to a violent extremist ideology.

Ease of access to violent extremist content online is a key contributor to the radicalisation of individuals who come to the attention of the NZSIS.

Exposure to extreme rhetoric has become commonplace in some people’s online experience, and they may become desensitised to what they see. Enough violent extremist content is readily available that for some people radicalisation is far too easy. This is particularly the case when a person already holds a radical or grievance-based view.

Individuals who hold mixed, unstable or unclear ideologies are especially vulnerable to being radicalised online. The NZSIS has identified a number of people who appear to explore a range of violent extremist beliefs online and adopt certain aspects to suit their grievance.

As well as being easy to find, hateful and violent content is also frequently shared in closed or anonymous online networks. These networks host groups that are contributing to the radicalisation of individuals both in New Zealand and around the world.

Inside these groups, it is not common for members to know each other’s identities. This practice is encouraged among the membership. It means members can anonymously or securely share content and opinions they may otherwise keep to themselves. When there’s low risk of attribution, members feel free to share even more extreme content, which can further entrench radicalisation among other young or vulnerable individuals participating in the group.

Hiding behind a cloak of anonymity is often how people separate their online and real world lives. This makes it difficult for the NZSIS to determine whether someone’s anonymous comments in support of violent extremism indicate actual intent and capability to carry out an attack. People will have different motivations for being anonymous. Some may be trying to hide their true intentions, others will be protecting their privacy and have no intention of mobilising to violence, and sometimes it is simply the default setting on the online platform they are using.

Even if people confine their support for violent extremism to the online environment, it can still be harmful if the behaviour involves promoting, creating or disseminating violent extremist content. 

People with certain vulnerabilities are increasingly common in New Zealand’s violent extremist environment.

Common factors seen among violent extremists in New Zealand include unstable socio-economic status, poor mental health, developmental trauma and low emotional maturity.

These are vulnerabilities which increase the likelihood of an individual taking part in anti-social behaviours, such as criminal offending, drug dependence, and violent extremism.

The vast majority of people with these vulnerabilities do not become violent extremists, but these have been common features in recent investigations, particularly those involving young people.

The challenge for security agencies is assessing the risk these people may pose to national security. Analysts work hard to understand whether someone genuinely plans to carry out real world actions based on the violent claims they make.

When a history of ill mental health is present, the challenge is more complex. Someone may express a desire to harm others, and even use extreme or ideological buzzwords, but it is not easy to determine if that is actually in support of a violent extremist ideology. Just as the presence of an ideology alone does not indicate someone will resort to violence, the presence of a mental health disorder doesn’t necessarily increase someone’s capacity to cause harm. Every case needs to be assessed on its merits to understand the level of risk posed.

Similarly, young people are not predisposed to violent extremism, but certain vulnerabilities that can make them more at risk can exist at a young age. Teenagers are increasingly coming to the attention of security services around the world. This trend will almost certainly continue, particularly given how exposed young people are to the online world, and the vast amounts of harmful content readily available.

The activity of young people online cannot always be supervised, and in many cases they will become exposed to violent extremist material without anyone close to them knowing. Unfettered access to the internet, along with a lack of anyone disrupting or asking questions about their activity, can make the pathways to violence incredibly short.

What might have previously been considered societal risks associated with internet safety, now have the potential to pose an ongoing risk to New Zealand’s national security.

The NZSIS has a responsibility to devote resources to detecting violent extremist threats that have not yet to come to light.

Our discovery function is about identifying actual or potential threats in the violent extremism environment. This work is driven by a strong strategic understanding about the nature of the threats New Zealand faces and exploring where there are any knowledge gaps.

An example of analytical work in this area is efforts to identify New Zealanders attempting to access violent extremist content online. Analysts use a range of methods to determine whether any of these people adhere to a violent extremist ideology and the risk they pose to New Zealand’s national security.

Importance of knowing the signs

Key to NZSIS discovery efforts is information we receive from members of the public.

NZSIS’s discovery and investigative efforts work to identify signs of radicalisation. However, it is a mistake to assume that intelligence and law enforcement agencies will automatically pick up on signs of radicalisation to violence. The reality is that New Zealanders are more likely to see concerning behaviour or activities before we do. This fact is reflected in our key assessment that a terrorist attack is most likely to happen in New Zealand without any intelligence warning in advance.

The ‘Know the signs’ guidance published in 2022 remains the most useful way for New Zealanders to help us detect early indicators of violent extremism.

The guide focuses on specific behaviours and activities that are observable in the real world. Each indicator has been seen in counter-terrorism investigations in New Zealand since 2006.
Understanding the behaviours and activities associated with violent extremism is crucial. Violent extremists in New Zealand have come from a broad cross-section of New Zealand society. That is why we ask to look for behaviours rather than a particular type of person.

Concerning behaviours associated with online radicalisation

Violent extremists will often be careful to avoid detection and maintain their online anonymity. However, from time-to-time certain behaviours will become more observable to others.

The following are specific indicators from ‘Know the signs’ seen in recent investigations that provide insight into how online behaviours can present themselves in the real world.